Earlier hopes that the Victorian cluster was coming under control were unfounded. It appears that the R0 continues to be 1.5 The R0 appeared to be as high as 0.94 in Australia prior to the onset of the Victorian cluster - perilously close to the critical epidemic threshold of 1. Perhaps an apparent R0 near to 1 does not give a safe enough margin. The graph below of daily new cases does not appear to have broken the upward trend of the cluster. The chart below suggests that the value of 1 in R8 (the 8 day average of the daily estimated R0) is a good indicator of an impending exponential increase in cases, either as an epidemic or cluster. See the Mathematical Model Here
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorDr Michael Cole FRACP LLB Archives
September 2021
Categories |