Monitoring the lifting of Restrictions: Australia

In Australia, NSW started the first stage of gradually lifting restrictions on the 1st May 2020. The change in NSW was that 'two adults and  their dependent children' could visit a home.

in order to monitor the effect of easing restrictions, the new cases per day can be plotted over a graph of the predicted cases for various percentage of apparent effectiveness of the restrictions. Up until 1st May it appeared that the restriction were about 80% effective in reducing the infection rate of the virus causing Covid_19. 

The graph below shows the model's predicted daily new cases if the easing of restrictions caused the  effectiveness of restriction to reduce to various percentage effectiveness values. The model includes a 14 day logarithmic 'wash-out' of the effectiveness of restrictions from 80% to a lower percentage (each in a separate, coloured graph).

The model seems to suggest that the restrictions should remain at at least 60% effectiveness to suppress the virus locally. Slightly less than 60% effectiveness results in a prolonged flat curve, and less than 54% effectiveness results in a significant second spike.