There are good economic and psychological reasons for easing restrictions whenever possible. The problem is in deciding if and when it is possible. After the first wave Australia lifted restrictions on 1 May 2020, just when the R was near 1 and climbing. In retrospect (or predictably, since an R over 1 means an epidemic is under way) it may have not been the best time to ease restrictions as much as they did. The blue arrow in the chart below.
Now Victoria is lifting restrictions while the R is above 0.8 and not definitely falling. It may be a time for caution. A low number of cases each day is not a good sign. It means the R is at or near 1 and a third wave is possible. To be a good sign the daily cases must be low AND falling. That means the new cases a day has to aim to drop to zero (for community transmission). Cautious lifting of restrictions so that R is kept at below 1 in the whole population is probably a reasonable approach.
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AuthorDr Michael Cole FRACP LLB Archives
September 2021
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