The number of cases in isolation has decreased to near zero this last week and the number that should have been in isolation to end this wave by bringing the effective R (effR or Re) below 1 has increased. Contact tracers are definitely swamped.
But effR is being decreased by the restrictions in place.
For contact tracers to be successful in ending this wave the blue graph below needed to be below the red graph.
The current effR is 1.61. In our opinion it is not correct to ignore past infections and vaccinated individuals when calculating effR; they are both 'not susceptible' (to the degree that they are efficacious in preventing infection) and excluding them causes an underestimation of effR.
The current wave is still epidemic. EffR has not yet shown a steady decline.
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Dr Michael Cole FRACP LLB