Residents in Aged Care facilities need extra precautions and care. They probably should be treated by the same strategy used for passengers on cruise ships. That is, either very early and very aggressive isolation and quarantine measures, OR early removal of individuals to other safer accommodation. It is possible that this is because the R0 for these individuals is much greater than the average 2.2.
R0 depends on the place or space under consideration as much as it does on the virus itself. The virus that causes Covid-19 is said to have an average R0 of about 2.2, but that is an average. The average person lives in an average home with an average number of family members and uses an average amount of public transport etc and for them the apparent R0 is about 2.2. But if a person lives in a dormitory with many people, or has a large number of family members living in the same house, or travels a lot on crowded public transport, then the chance of infection, and therefore the R0, goes up. The same for crowded workplaces where social distancing is difficult. The same for cruise ships. And the same for Aged Care facilities. In those cases the R0 is probably much higher than 2.2 and the virus spreads quickly. It spreads exponentially. And exponential spread goes from 'no problem' through 'there might be a problem' to 'there is a severe problem' in a flash. Should Aged Care facilities be managed with the same care as a Covid hospital ward early or should the residents be moved out (where possible) to safer accommodation early? I think the answer is Yes.
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AuthorDr Michael Cole FRACP LLB Archives
September 2021
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