Spot Fires or Trouble?

It looked like there might have been trouble brewing a few days ago when there was a rise in new cases per day. Was it a break out of control and a possible start to a second spike? Or was it a spot fire? It looks like it was a spot fire - with delayed detection of a cluster of cases in one workplace. Spot fires are probably to be expected when an epidemic is nearly under control. Each spot fire creates a small spike of its own which subsides as cases are traced and isolated.

The graph of new cases a day appears to have returned to the yellow line graphing out the course predicted if the mitigation in place is 80% effective in reducing the infection rate of the virus (from a presumed 2.2 to 0.44).

The sudden spike in new cases on 3 May may have suggested that the relaxation of restrictions in NSW on 1 May might have reduced the restrictions efficacy below 50%, which would have signaled a second spike. But those cases probably turned out to be a spot fire and new cases have subsequently safely returned to near the 80% effectiveness of restrictions area of the graph.

The Australians, who mainly introduced their own restrictions and isolation well ahead of the Federal Government, and Gladys Berejiklian continue to do a good job.