Australia's current wave August 2021

Vaccination appears to be the way forward. Restrictions and lockdown will probably not contain Delta strain Covid19 because the reproduction number R₀ is too high and the normal distribution of human behaviour, at its extremes, predicts non-compliance.

Cases infected and then potentially infecting in the community (community cases) continue to rise as does the effective R (effR) which is about 1.6, which is epidemic, instead of the 1.0 required to end the wave. Cases in isolation are 'dead ends' to spread and are not relevant to community effR.
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​60% of daily cases should have been in isolation in order to end the wave, but only 9% of mean daily cases over the last five days have been in isolation.

​Restriction will probably not halt the current wave and there will always be leaks in Australia's border (quarantine and isolation). Vaccination appears to be the only way forward. It will reduce, but not stop,  the spread.

But the main advantage of vaccination is that it is very good at preventing severe disease and death. The whole population who wish to be vaccinated should be vaccinated. Those who choose not to vaccinate have a right to do so. But it is not ethical to fully open up until all adults and all children who wish to be vaccinated have been given an opportunity to do so.
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