The ratio of the number of cases that "should have been" in isolation to the number of cases that "were" in isolation is currently about 20 and the contact tracers appear to be overwhelmed. Only 2% of the daily cases are isolated at present. It is estimated that about 40% of daily cases must have been isolated (diagnosed in isolation) for the community to community spread effR to be below 1 and end the current wave. Since 22 August the general restriction in place do appear to be reducing the effR of community to community spread, although it is still high and exponential at 1.70
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AuthorDr Michael Cole FRACP LLB Archives
September 2021
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