Another cluster or the start of the Third Wave?

With a mean R of 1.3 this appears to be no time to ease restrictions. During the first wave the mean R fell rapidly from well over 2.5 to about 0.6 (green graph below). Unfortunately restrictions were eased on 1 May just as the mean R was rising and approaching 1 (the critical epidemic point). A series of clusters followed with the mean R slowly rising over time and compliance fatigue set in. Then the second wave hit. The decrease in mean R was sluggish and finally failed. The second wave was therefore higher and lasted longer than the first wave (blue graph below). Just when the second wave was nearly over compliance decreased and mean R has risen to 1.3 and rising. Signalling a new cluster at least and possibly a third wave.

On the chart below straight lines of different colours are draw to 'best fit' the curving green graph of the new daily Australia cases. The straight lines can only fit a part of the curved green graph, but the straight lines give a good indication of where the green graph is going at that point in time. The straight lines are drawn by putting values into the coloured box of the same colour on the left.
The yellow line shows that Australian new cases were decreasing during the second wave with an indicated R of 0.75. And the brown straight lines shows that the Australian new cases are now increasing with an indicated R of 1.2. Which agrees with the mean R over 8 days (R8) of 1.3.

It is easy to see this cluster or wave in hindsight, but it was probably predictable by the 4 October by the fact that the mean R was rising and approaching 1. That was no time to be contemplating an easing of restrictions.